BOW Thought: The Moment

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I am celebrating it by working on behalf of you, the people.

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Odds are you won’t read this right away. My newsletters perform the worst on Sundays, and today basically is one.

But I like today’s thought. I hope you do too, whenever you read it.

BOW Thought

It’s officially fantasy football season, which is terrible.

Why?

I play in one, ultra-competitive league.

It’s competitive because we all like to think we know a lot about sports, and are lifelong friends who like pushing each other’s buttons.

And it’s…intense. And annoying. And consuming. And a lot.

Specifically, because the format is intense.

This year we shifted to something called a “dynasty superflex” league.

Don’t make me type that again, or I fear I’ll lose many subscribers.

Essentially, we picked teams yesterday for…forever. For eternity.

There will be no more fantasy drafts in this league.

We’ll manage our teams each year as if we are real NFL owners and general managers - drafting rookies, trading draft picks, and keeping the same rosters together every, single, year.

Which made the draft we had yesterday all the more important.

Any player you didn’t get, well - there is no next year. It’s now or never.

And since there are no more drafts, teams will have to assess if their window is now or in the future.

Should I stock up on players for a run at the title in 2023?

Or do I try to stock up on young guys for a run in 2024, or beyond?

I just read a great article from Grace Kite on 2024 marketing budget setting.

Check it out HERE.

In it, she argues to…not set a budget for 2024.

Okay, that’s a bit hyperbole.

But for certain categories, she preaches not to get aggressive next year.

And, despite it seeming conservative, I think that is pretty fucking bold.

Kite argues that in some categories, buyers are shopping around more than usual.

Take the “essentials” for instance. Shampoo, groceries, etc. These are things people have to buy, not matter what the economic climate is like.

Prices are higher, so people are more likely to browse and peruse than usual, and still buy despite higher prices.

Good opportunity for challenger brands in these categories.

But in “luxury treat” categories, Kite says people are choosing to delay instead of buy.

Bad opportunity for new brands these categories.

Sure, there are data points to the contrary.

People’s spending habits in the face of a rocky economy.

A willingness to deplete savings after years of COVID restrictions.

Different demographics responding to economic pressures differently.

But her point resonates, especially this one:

“Advertising isn’t fluffy or all about colouring in. It’s a legitimate and important tool for driving business success. The trouble is that CEOs, CFOs, founders and investors sometimes forget that fact. They’re sceptical about advertising at the best of times and often pull the plug when the economy feels wobbly.

It means the worst thing you can do is push a case for advertising when realistically it’s not the right time.”

During a recession, I see the same old argument, usually from agencies - it’s actually better to maintain, if not increase, marketing vs. decrease.

These brands come out on the other side ahead!, they say.

Here’s the thing though.

You also have to have a business on the other side, to come out the other side.

And that’s where the argument, instantly, in a snap, falls down.

What CEO, CFO, investor, or founder is going to take a marketer seriously, telling them to spend more money during a recession, when it might mean more layoffs, less profit, less runway for the future?

Especially if this argument is from an agency, that is basically incentivized to say the lights should be kept on, because they don’t get paid if the lights get turned off?

Credibility gets lost. And it gets lost for the moments or opportunities when marketing really can have an impact.

I wrote a post about this a year or so ago on how to approach recessionary budget spending. You can read it HERE. My playbook is basically:

• Reset benchmarks for the last 3-6-9 mos

• “Beat” the average decrease in media spend in your category

• Attack CPM and cost per attention inefficiencies in the marketplace

• Plan a long-term bet, so you’re at least putting 1 step to the future

But I like Kite’s approach. Why?

Because it prioritizes your ammo for the moment.

The moment that matters for your brand.

The moment when you can have a bigger impact in the market.

The moment when you can push pedal to the metal and unlock growth.

Maybe that moment isn’t 2024. And that’s OK. Don’t force it.

This also isn’t an argument to wait forever to make a mark.

We see this all the time now in basketball. Zion Williamson, anyone?

Players rehabbing injuries, for longer than it takes to actually come back, just to preserve their energy for the next season, when the team can be more “competitive.”

But sometimes they’re even rustier than they should be the next time they step on the court.

Or their bodies don’t heal as fast, because they’re not trying as hard to return.

So they sit on the bench, and they wait and wait, for the right moment to strike.

And they miss the window.

In the future, AI will allow us to run mock scenarios of actual campaigns.

It’s called digital twinning, or something.

Basically, entire campaigns will be planned and executed, results compiled and predicted - without ever leaving the computer screen.

And you can bet that will cause more indecision than decision.

So don’t think too much about when to strike.

So if that’s the case, how can you identify the right moment?

I don’t really know, but here’s a stab at it:

• Budget: particularly, how much you have relative to your share of market. It needs to be enough to make a splash.

• POV: this is even more important if the budget box above is not checked. If you don’t have enough, you better have something interesting to say, and the determination to say it interestingly.

• Market: the category either needs to be ready for this POV, or at least willing to give a shit about it.

• Team: this is the most underrated one. You can have all the budget in the world, and the best POV, but if the team putting the pieces together isn’t determined, nibble, intelligent, cohesive, collaborative, and creative, it won’t do anything. Sorry AI. This goes for a strong client / agency relationship, and especially, strong internal dynamics as well on the client side - the team needs strong leaders on both sides of the aisle to steer the ship.

When the moment hits you, you need to be ready with a strong budget, an even stronger POV, a willing market, and a terrific team.

That might not be in 2024. If not, see you in 2025.

I won’t be drafting then, but I’ll be planning for the right moment to strike.

Stay thinkin,
Danny