Saturday Thought: Hits & Misses

Hope everyone is settling in for a great weekend.

I am; this will supposedly be my last weekend as a non-parent.

My wife is scheduled to give birth on Monday.

And I’m a ball of excitement and anxiety.

My newsletter cadence will predictably be a little off soon.

So if you don’t hear from me, just keep your eyes peeled for one eventually.

Today’s newsletter is sponsored by the imitable Jimmy Fusco.

Jimmy is a world class citizen, and reps NCM cinema ad inventory.

With the writer’s strike over, the movie theater is about to be bumping.

Hit up Jimmy for great inventory next to T.Swift, Beyonce, and more.

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Onto to today’s thought…

Ryan Poles is the general manager of the NFL’s Chicago Bears.

He also currently bears both the highest and lowest honors in the league.

He is responsible for both:

• One of the worst NFL trades in recent memory

• One of the best NFL trades in recent memory

Let’s start with the worst first.

Poles traded for Chase Claypool last year, a mercurial wide receiver.

He gave up a pretty lofty draft pick to get him.

The hope was that he would turn into a star receiver, for their young quarterback Justin Fields to throw to over many years to come.

Claypool rewarded Poles with…close to nothing.

He was abysmal with the Bears.

He played 7 games, and had minimal contributions in each.

They lost every single game he played in.

And, he was an extreme locker room distraction.

They traded him yesterday for next to nothing, just to get him out of town.

Pretty bad. The kind of trade that gets you fired.

But…

A few months later, Poles pulled off a brilliant trade.

The Bears owned the first pick in the NFL draft.

But they already had a quarterback they believed in, so they didn’t need the draft pick to select another one.

So they traded it. For another emerging receiver named DJ Moore.

And FOUR draft picks, including a first round pick next year.

The early returns have been off the charts.

DJ Moore scored 3 touchdowns on Thursday alone, for the Bears first win in a year.

And, one of the picks the Bears traded for is set to be a top-5 one next year.

A true masterclass of getting as much as you can, for something you don’t want.

So why did I just waste 500 words in one of my last, pre-baby newsletters on a random general manager in the NFL?

A few reasons.

First, beware the numbers and the narrative.

Rarely do I see both these trades mentioned together in the same breath.

People either criticize for Poles for being a horrible trader, or a great one.

But both trades were made by the same person, in the pursuit of the same strategy.

Second, maximize leverage.

Poles didn’t want that first pick, but got as much as he could for it.

It’s like talking to an ad seller at the end of a quarter.

If you’re reasonable and know where you stand, you can get a lot for something you don’t really want. (Shout out to Barry for this one)

Third, it’s possible for your marketing campaign to have tactics that are exceptional, and tactics that are utter garbage.

And that’s OK.

Steve Jobs once said that “good news is accelerated, and bad news is stalled.”

We’re quick to highlight our wins, but tip-toe around our losses.

Meanwhile, clients are quick to do to the opposite - focus on what went wrong in a campaign, vs. celebrate the success stories.

My advice is to celebrate both.

Every marketing report should revolve around two, and only two things.

1. What worked, and how do we scale it?

2. What didn’t work, and how are we going to fix it?

Four, don’t get too down on yourself if a tactic goes wrong.

It’s OK to reconcile that you can both make a fantastic call, and a terrible one.

Often when I plan a marketing campaign, I beat myself up over the decisions that don’t go as well as I had hoped, while forgetting about the ones that worked out well, or even better than anticipated.

And finally, as long as you’re doing things in pursuit of a larger strategic goal, you’re on the right track.

Poles didn’t make either trade on a whim.

He had a plan:

Get a star receiver to help our young quarterback.

One of the moves was a complete bust.

One of the moves was a total hit.

At least he’s making moves, because if he stood pat, nothing would have happened.

Now, the Bears are 1-3, and who knows if Justin Fields is a long-term answer at quarterback.

But having a plan will lead to better outcomes over the long term, even if there are missteps, than just shooting from the hip.

Stay thinkin,

Danny