Saturday Thought: 2024 Predictions!

Hello!

I’ve been slacking. That’s an understatement.

First, I haven’t wished my new and returning subscribers a happy, blessed new year.

In fact, I’ve missed the socially acceptable window to wish it, per my godfather, Larry David.

But alas, I’m back. I’ll be better.

First newsletter of the year is sponsored by Jim Downing. Jim paid me $5.34 last December and was probably wondering, “what the hell? I paid this scammer $ and he won’t post about me!” But Jim is a great guy. He’s been a loyal subscriber since the beginning, and constantly messages me notes and thoughts about the dumb stuff I write about. Check out Jim HERE and give him a connection, why don’t ya.

I also started the year with a bit of press (weird flex). Check out my podcast HERE with Victor Geneva on The Media People podcast, and some dour comments I had about 2024 HERE in Ad Age.

Onto to today’s thought…

Saturday Thought

We’re two weeks into 2024, so I thought it’d be good to start the year with…

More predictions!

Now, you might think that’s cheating.

We’re already two weeks into the year, so there’s already 14 days of sample of what will happen this year.

And, I already wrote a LinkedIn post about this.

Well, screw it.

I thought of a bunch more predictions after I posted, and I wanted to share them with you all here.

So here we go.

2024 will be the year where screens really go out of vogue. People are sick of reading, watching, and spending every single minute tied to their phones, their tablets, their screens. They’ll do a better job of ditching them this year. This will be a macro threat to the big behemoths like Google and Meta, and be cited in their earnings call for engagement dips throughout the year.

2024 will be the year where marketers realize January is a horrific month to market their products in. Just look below at the rise of the term “no spend January.” It’s at an all time high this year per Google Trends, somewhat out of nowhere. Layoffs for white collar jobs will become the norm in January, as tech companies try to goose their stock prices to start the year. And illness will always be a thing that dampens people and keeps them inside coming out of Q4 / Q1 post-COVID. Plus, holiday spending hangovers will persist. January sucks. Marketers will realize this starting next year.

2024 will be the year that Disney buys Hasbro. Whoah! But they will. Disney needs an IP infusion to get their mojo back. And Mattel has showed with Barbie there’s juice in the toys Millennials grew up with. They’ll use the money from their rumored ESPN partnership with the NFL that broke last night to fund this, and put the content front and center on their new Hulu / Disney+ mega service.

2024 will be the year of Ozempic predictions. I’m not sure if any of them will be right. But Ozempic predictions will outweigh AI predictions.

2024 will be the year TikTok struggles. There already are reports they’re putting TikTok Shop too front and center on the app at the expense of users. And, a recent report shows that Gen Z - TikTok’s main constituency - trusts it less than Twitter. Twitter! We’re going to see some tiring of the hottest platform in media. Rough year for TikTok incoming.

2024 will be the year that the Super Bowl is the “ad tier bowl.” Every major streaming service - Netflix, Disney, Amazon - will be promoting their new ad tier during the game to get subscribers and momentum. We may even see some of them drop a new season of a hit show unexpectedly after the game, with a discounted offer for the ad tier, to spur momentum.

2024 will be the year that the auto industry really pulls back on advertising. Between the strikes last year, and decreasing demand for EVs they’ve invested heavily in, and 2023 seeing the most auto recalls EVER, it’s going to be a really tough year for auto marketers. Marketers should take note and look at the top sponsorships these brands pay for, as they’ll become available.

2024 will be the year that Netflix buys CBS….’s cable networks. Netflix will buy legacy brands like Comedy Central, MTV, and more to fuel interest in their ad tier, and give even more credibility to their work in fields like comedy and music. And Netflix won’t be the only one - Disney will sniff around Nickelodeon, Amazon will sniff around BET, and other streamers will look for legacy brands to fuel interest in their content, sunsetting the cable versions of these brands and bringing them exclusively streaming.

2024 will be the year that adtech targeting takes a huge step forward. For years, brand marketers have lambasted targeting as ineffective and overrated, and scolded anyone who used targeting as a priority in their media planning. But AI will make cookie-based targeting, which was infamously inaccurate, look infantile and immature.

In general, 2024 will be a year of headline firsts in marketing, enabled by AI. “First time to do X” will be a common Ad Age or Ad Week headline that brands strive for.

2024 will be the year Substack sells itself to an AI company. AI companies are increasingly trying to get quality data into their models, and Substack likely needs cash as a hot startup that excelled when rates were lower and the economy was better.

In fact, 2024 will be the year that individual creators also strike deals with AI companies for their work, as they’re less precious about their content than celebrities and more willing to be partners with companies that are paving the way of the future.

2024 will be the year that social listening loses its luster. People are increasingly posting less and less on social networks, and lurking more and more.

2024 will be the year of AI authentication. With an election upcoming and misinformation set to thrive on the horizon, we’ll see a company or platform out of nowhere get massive value in their ability to authenticate AI images as real.

2024 will be the year of the “no product launch” strategy. Brands will lean more heavily into their legacy brands that elicit nostalgia, vs. new brands that are funded by internal investment. It’ll be the year of boring products, but exceptional marketing to make those products sexy.

2024 will be the year of the “alone” ad networks. Experiences you used to be able to experience by yourself, will now be accompanied by your favorite brands. Peloton will introduce ads. Airbnb will introduce ads (“try this product for a lower cost stay!”). Watch out for more.

2024 will be the year Mr. Beast gets knocked off his pedestal. The guy is just too good to be true. A scandal, a misstep, fatigued interest. Something.

Similarly, 2024 will finally see a shuffle at the top of the top podcasts. New upstarts like the Kelce brothers and Andrew Huberman will unseat the regulars.

2024 will see NYC subway ads fade from sexy Millennial targeted ads, to the dreck they used to be. People aren’t coming back to the office in droves, so the people riding the tube get more injury lawyer and toe fungus ads.

2024 will see Elon step back from all his business dealings. The WSJ is already reporting on his drug usage. By end of year, he’ll be in the background of all of his companies.

2024 will be the year that trends that started 6-12 months ago, happen this year. Because, well, that’s every year. That’s the fallacy in all of this, isn’t it? Anything that happens this year, was already apparent last year. So don’t try to get too cute - observe what’s been happening over the last 12 months, basically that will accelerate in the next 12.

That’s it! We’re done! Until next time, which may be 3 months from now.

Stay thinkin,

Danny